After stealing Game 1 in Brooklyn, the No. 2-seed Minnesota Lynx fell in Game 2 to the No. 1-seed New York Liberty. Now tied at 1-1, the 2024 WNBA Finals are a best-of- three series as we head to Minnesota for the next two games. The first, Game 3, tips off on Wednesday, Oct. 16 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).

In a tight and often jaw-dropping series, there is still a lot of basketball to be played to determine the 2024 champions.

Game 1 was all about the Lynx’s comeback. They were able to bring themselves back into the game and then fluster the Liberty into losing in overtime. Game 2, on the other hand, was all about New York’s defense. In particular, Breanna Stewart had seven steals in the game, while the team forced seven turnovers on Napheesa Collier alone. Although the Lynx were able to come back AGAIN and bring the game within a possession, the Liberty held strong and won it.

The key to a Game 3 win for Lynx, Liberty

Minnesota Lynx

The Lynx need to come out of the gate with power. They have been flat at the beginning of the previous two games, forcing them to recover and fight their way back into the contests. While it worked in Game 1 and nearly worked in Game 2, they can’t win a series like that. If Minnesota can come out with a bang in Game 3, they will give themselves a much better chance of not only staying with New York, but getting ahead.

New York Liberty

For the Liberty, it’s the opposite. They need to execute better in the second half. In Game 1, they forced overtime on a foul technicality, but then did not score for the first half of the extra period. In Game 2, they performed better, but things still got a little rocky in the second half. Sabrina Ionescu had a huge first half, but failed to get going in the second half. While were able to pull out the win in the end, letting the Lynx come within two was nerve-wracking.

Who will step up for Minnesota, New York?

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Minnesota Lynx

It was a poor shooting night in Game 2 from Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton, only shooting 6-for-18 between the pair. The Lynx are best when these two are firing off shots from everywhere on the court, confusing the opposing defense because they don’t know which player to put more pressure on. If the Lynx are going to try and close this out at home, McBride and Carleton need to shoot the lights out.

New York Liberty

While Leonie Fiebich hit the dagger 3-point shot that helped New York win Game 2, it was her only basket of the night. Fiebich’s defensive power alone makes her a huge asset on the floor, no matter what. But the Liberty also need that extra punch that can come from her offense. They also need to play through Jonquel Jones more. The Liberty often fail to take advantage of the simplicity of running plays through Jones. It is an approach that can be even more beneficial against a Lynx team that does not have anyone who truly can match up with her.

Which team has the edge?

While the Lynx now have homecourt advantage, the Liberty are the team that had the best road record in the WNBA (16-4). Don’t expect New York to get too rattled by the crowd being against them, but the Lynx could surely benefit form being boosted by their fans.

The next team to win will have the elimination advantage for the following two games, so this is THE essential game of the series. I still think this is going five games, but it will be a battle all the way.

Game information

No. 1-seed New York Liberty (1-1) at No. 2-seed Minnesota Lynx (1-1)

When: Wednesday, Oct. 16 at 8 p.m. ET

Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

How to watch: ESPN

Liberty injury report: none

Lynx injury report: none

In Game 1 of the WNBA Finals, Courtney Williams was the closer for the Minnesota Lynx, captaining their comeback. She not only scored 15 of her 24 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, but also converted the four-play that forced the extra period. She was the ultimate X factor, just as Beckett Harrison predicted before the series.

In Game 2, the New York Liberty’s Betnijah Laney-Hamilton fulfilled Zack Ward’s vision, with the second longest-tenured Liberty shaking off the lingering effects of her knee procedure to score a season-high 20 points in a postseason-high 32 minutes of action.

Can Swish Appeal identify who Game 3’s hero will be? It’s probably unwise to press our luck, but between these two Finalists, there’s too many players with the potential for series-shifting impact.

Of course, we know Napheesa Collier, who is leading the playoffs in total points, rebounds, steals and blocks, will be special. As will Breanna Stewart, who shook off her fumbles from down the stretch of Game 1 to deliver a little bit of everything in Game 2, including a Finals-record seven steals. But which role players, like Williams and Laney-Hamilton, will make the plays that support their superstars and put their team over the top? How about Leonie Fiebich and Kayla McBride?

Will Leonie lift the Liberty?

Quite possibly, one of the most critical buckets of Game 2 provided a preview of what’s to come in Game 3 from Leonie Fiebich.

After a double team from Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu forced Courtney Williams to dribble the ball off her foot, Fiebich recovered it and headed toward the Liberty’s basket. Behind the 3-point line, she had the opportunity to hit a streaking Stewart for what likely would have been an easy score. The rookie set up to shoot and then paused, seeming ponder if she should, in fact, fire off the wide-open triple. She did. And it rattled in, taking New York’s lead from six points to nine points with 1:30 remaining. It was the dagger that saved the Liberty from reliving the drama of Game 1.

That was only Fiebich’s third shot attempt and lone make of Game 2. In Game 1, she scored 17 points, albeit on her most inefficient shooting night of the postseason. Yet, she remains the Liberty’s plus/minus queen, with New York outscoring opponents by a team-high 90 points in her 231 playoff minutes. It’s a stat the captures how she is the Liberty’s skeleton key, with her combination of size, strength, savvy and shooting unlocking the best of New York on both ends of the floor.

Expect her quieter Finals impact to eventually become loud. If the Liberty are to breakthrough and finally win the franchise’s first championship, it likely will involve a series of big shots from the 24-year-old German.

Time to get McBuckets!

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Big shots? That’s Kayla McBride’s brand.

McBride has the second-most playoff experience on the Lynx, with her 28 games trailing only Courtney Williams’ 33. In Minnesota’s 2021 and 2023 playoff runs, that experience showed, as her production increased in the postseason. In 2021, the Lynx’s postseason lasted a single game, yet not because of McBride, who made four 3s and scored 19 points in a loss to the eventual champion Chicago Sky. Last season, she dropped 28 points, boosted by six triples, as Minnesota won Game 2 of their first-round series against the Connecticut Sun.

In 2024, McBride’s playoff production has dipped; after averaging 15 points per game and shooting over 40 percent from 3 in the regular season, she’s averaging 13.9 per game and shooting 36.4 from long range through nine playoff games. That’s not to suggest that McBride hasn’t been good in these playoffs. In Game 1 of the Finals, she scored 22 points, draining four 3s. She also busting it on the defensive end. McBride is doing her best to stick with Sabrina Ionescu, marshaling her strength and smarts to keep the Liberty guard in check. In Game 1, she induced Ionescu into one of the most inefficient, high-volume shooting nights in Finals history.

And yet, if the Lynx are to win this series, McBride can’t just be good, or even very good—she needs to be great. She’s already helped one of her teams win a title in 2024 with such greatness. In the EuroLeague Women championship game, she tallied 25 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals, sealing a second-straight EuroLeague Women crown for Fenerbahçe. If she unleashes a similar effort in these Finals, McBride might be adding a WNBA championship to her trophy case.

In the context of a fatiguing 40-game WNBA season, depth is somehow touted as both a luxury and a necessity. A luxury in the sense that meaningful bench contributors don’t grow on trees. A necessity in the sense that, without them, starters will bear a load too heavy to contend.

Neither the New York Liberty nor the Minnesota Lynx have struggled with depth this season. The handiness of players like Kayla Thornton and Leonie Fiebich on the Liberty’s side and Natisha Hiedeman and Myisha Hines-Allen for the Lynx has helped tow each team to a prized Finals berth. But since the series started, reserves have become less than an afterthought.

Efficiency or uninvolvement?

Through eight quarters and a thrilling Game 1 overtime, the Lynx and Liberty starters have put 297 points on the board. The benches? Only 37. Less than 12 percent of total points scored in the series.

A mostly-lopsided Game 2 loss saw only five points from the Lynx bench. Natisha Hiedeman notched all five in 18 minutes, while three others failed to score in their combined 19 minutes. New York’s bench didn’t prove much better, scrapping together only seven points in 29 minutes.

Infrequent output can be attributed to one of two things: efficiency or uninvolvement. For the Liberty, bench struggles have seemed predominantly tied to the latter. The front three of Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu have taken 101 of the Liberty’s 151 shots this series. Realistically, head coach Sandy Brondello doesn’t want her reserves to be high-volume shooters. She made that clear when she moved Leonie Fiebich into the starting lineup in the place of Courtney Vandersloot, who hadn’t come off the bench since 2017. Fiebich was New York’s go-to bench scorer throughout the course of the season, and her place amongst the starters shows that Brondello is consolidating firepower.

Minnesota may be suffering from both. Midseason acquisition Myisha Hines-Allen made noticeable progress in the Lynx system towards the conclusion of the regular season, but her Finals minutes have echoed the sporadic confusion of her post-trade deadline debuts. Hiedeman, the only guard seeing the court amongst the Lynx reserves, was able to make her mark with 10 points in Game 1, but wasn’t afforded much of an opportunity to contribute in Sunday’s loss.

Advantage: New York

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The Liberty lost homecourt advantage after Minnesota stole Game 1 in Brooklyn, but absences from each bench work undoubtedly in their favor. The New York starting unit is mauling the Lynx. They shot out to a 10-point first quarter lead in Game 2, and Minnesota couldn’t flip the margin. Despite their late-game collapse in Game 1, they lead by 16 in the first quarter, and preserved an advantage all the way until the game’s final minutes. The Liberty are more than comfortable leaning on five players.

The Lynx starters are fighting, but a lack of bench presence has left them uninsured. Their stars need to fire on all cylinders or they’ll be left in New York’s dust. Napheesa Collier, Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride all broke the 20-point threshold in Game 1. Minnesota won. Neither of the three scored more than 16 points in Game 2. They lost by 14. Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton are consistently decent, but haven’t shown the willingness or ability to move the needle when someone else is having an off-night. Assuming both benches are stuck in perpetual silence, off-nights will be losses for the Lynx.

In many ways, 2024 was a characteristic Connecticut Sun season.

The team exceeded expectations, propelled by their toughness, tenacity and just enough timely shotmaking to finish with a 28-12 record and at No. 3 in the league standings. Alyssa Thomas bullied her way to triple-doubles. DeWanna Bonner played with ageless energy. DiJonai Carrington established herself as a star in her role. Brionna Jones returned to her pre-injury efficiency. Midseason addition Marina Mabrey immediately imbibed the Sun’s signature intensity. Ty Harris emerged as a solid two-way starting point guard. Veronica Burton earned playing time with her aggressive perimeter defense.

The Sun have a blueprint for regular-season success. But in the postseason, they once again hit a ceiling. Connecticut took the Minnesota Lynx to Game 5 of the semifinals before they gave out, their effortfulness unable able to overcome their opponent’s more efficient execution.

This time, however, might have been the last time that this era of Sun basketball replayed this script. So, what went right, what went wrong and what’s next for Connecticut?

What went right for the Sun?

DeWanna’s not done

Although she made it clear during her exit interview that this was NOT her final WNBA season, DeWanna Bonner’s play throughout her 15th season should have made it obvious that the 37-year-old is not done.

Bonner keeps churning out similarly solid seasons. This year, that meant averages of 15 points, six rebounds, two assists and nearly two “stocks” (steals+blocks) per game. Those numbers, however, fail to capture all she still does for Connecticut. She is a 6-foot-4 Swiss Army Knife, possessing a combination of enviable length and sneaky strength that can be deployed across all positions on both ends of the floor.

Her longevity and consistency has resulted in a rise up the ranks of WNBA records. Having played the third-most regular-season games in league history at (502), she is fourth all-time in points (7482, just six points behind Tina Thompson for third) and ninth all-time in rebounds (3067, and again just three behind Thompson). In the playoffs, she’s scored the second-most points (1191), grabbed the third-most rebounds (593, five behind Tamika Catchings for second) and snagged the third-most steals (105, three behind Candace Parker for second).

DiJonai’s earned improvement

Analysts and fans often bemoan the lack of opportunity for all but the highest-drafted WNBA players, as roster limitations frequently result in players selected outside the lottery struggling to find a WNBA home. Because of this structural reality, players who succeed in spite of less-than-favorable circumstances deserve all the more credit. DiJonai Carrington is now the ideal archetype of such a player.

The No. 20 overall selection in the 2021 WNBA Draft, Carrington has molded herself into a valuable player: a lockdown defender, a transition threat, a smart cutter and still-refining outside shooter. In 2024, her hard work culminated in the Most Improved Player award and a spot on the All-Defensive First Team.

And while Carrington deserves the majority of the credit for her growth, Connecticut also fostered the conditions necessary for her to blossom into the player she has become. The team’s other young vets—Ty Harris, Veronica Burton and Olivia Nelson-Ododa, all of whom began their WNBA careers with other organizations—also have experienced steady improvement in Uncasville, with all three establishing themselves as players who should enjoy long careers in the league because of their ability to contribute to a winning team.

Call me Mabrey!

Midseason trades in the WNBA are rare. Those that actually matter are even rarer. Yet, the Sun’s midseason swing for Marina Mabrey proved the perfect match.

Without the gun-slinging guard from the Chicago Sky, Connecticut likely would not have lasted until Game 5 of the semifinals. Mabrey, whether as a starter or sixth player, provided scoring juice for the Sun, fearlessly firing up jumpers. If she missed, she’d not hesitate when taking the next one. After makes, she’d celebrate with a snarl, expertly embodying the spirit of the Sun.

Her regular-season scoring and efficiency improved after joining the Sun, as she scored almost 15 points per game while shooting 46.7 percent from the field and better than 42 percent from 3. In the playoffs, she increased her production to almost 16 points per game.

What went wrong for the Sun?

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Not their best against the best

The Sun started the season with nine-straight wins. They then were 12-1 through the season’s first 13 games.

That first loss came to the New York Liberty. Their second and third losses, experienced back-to-back in the 14th and 15th games of the season, were to the Las Vegas Aces and Seattle Storm. That’s three playoff teams that finished the season with winning records. For the season, Connecticut went 1-2 against New York, 0-3 against Vegas and 1-2 against Seattle. Their regular-season mark against Minnesota, the only other team to finish with a winning record, was 2-1. So when facing the league’s best teams, the Sun were a subpar 4-8.

Connecticut can be counted on to take care of business against the league’s mediocre and underwhelming teams. That’s not something that should be taken for granted, as winning consistently in the best women’s basketball league in the world is difficult. But the Sun do it, bringing their brand of physical, defense-first ball to the court regardless of what team is on the other side. What they haven’t quite cracked, though, is what to do when their brand of ball doesn’t work, when the opponent’s skills, strategy and stars can outpace and outlast the Sun’s grinding, gut-it-out approach.

Connecticut is good. They’re very good. But in 2024, just as in season’s prior, they were not good enough to beat the best and, in turn, win a WNBA title.

What’s next for Connecticut?

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A coming Sun-set?

Was 2024 the last time that Connecticut hit their ceiling?

Thomas, Bonner and Jones are unrestricted free agents. Will the Sun choose to again outlay large salaries to trio when it seems less and less likely that next year will be the year when they finally will breakthrough and capture the franchise’s first, elusive championship? Or, with expansion and a new CBA on the horizon, will Connecticut choose to retool and build around a new core that, eventually, could bust through that ceiling and bring a title to Uncasville?

Because the three are unrestricted free agents, the choice does not belong to the Sun organization. (Thomas is eligible to be cored; Bonner and Jones are not.) The players themselves could opt for new opportunities. The team, however, will have a say over the future of Carrington, who is a restricted free agent. The organization also can unilaterally choose to retain Burton, a reserved player. As Mabrey and Nelson-Ododa are the only players on guaranteed contracts for 2025, Connecticut has flexibility, which they can use to work with Thomas, Bonner and/or Jones to ensure they remain in Sun uniforms or to build the next iteration of the Sun.

Whether Stephanie White will be the head coach of whatever the Sun look like in 2025 also is a question. When reporting on the Chicago Sky’s coaching search, Annie Costabile of the Chicago Sun-Times indicated that White is not expected to return. It is unclear if this decision is being initiated by White, who may see a more favorable coaching opportunity elsewhere, or the team’s management, which might seek a head coach who is not in line for an extension and higher salary, especially if the team’s stars do not return.

In short, don’t be surprised if significant upheaval happens in Uncasville this offseason.

After a historic comeback by the No. 2-seed Minnesota Lynx in Game 1, Game 2 of the 2024 WNBA Finals saw the No. 1-seed New York Liberty even up the series.

The Liberty protected home court and beat the Lynx, 80-66. New York got it done thanks to Betnijah Laney-Hamilton being an unguardable force, scoring 20 points on 8-for-14 shooting. Breanna Stewart brushed off the bad moments she had in Game 1 and was productive with a team-high 21 points, along with eight rebounds, five assists and seven steals. No one has ever had as many steals in a WNBA Finals game.

The Lynx stayed within striking distance but couldn’t finish the comeback in the fourth quarter. Naphessa Collier was an efficient 7-for-12 from the field, good for 16 points, and Courtney Williams shot 50 percent from the field and added 15, but the Lynx struggled to put points on the board as a team. The 66 points they scored on Sunday was the lowest point total by Minnesota in these playoffs.

How New York responded

Sabrina Ionescu wasted no time getting things going for the Liberty, scoring the team’s first five points. She scored 12 of her 15 points during the opening frame. New York stayed ahead and aggressive, ending the quarter on a 7-0 run and leading 31-21 after the first.

The rest of the first half featured both teams exchanging baskets. Bridget Carleton and Collier were effective, scoring a combined 11 points in the second, but Laney-Hamilton countered with two 3-point baskets and Stewart added seven points to keep the Liberty in front by 10 entering the break.

The Lynx applied pressure during the start of the third as Williams hit a 3-pointer to trim the deficit down to six points. New York called timeout and got back on track with a Jonquel Jones basket. With the quarter winding down, Stewart scored four unanswered points to give the Liberty an eight-point edge entering the fourth.

Minnesota has had a never-say-die attitude during these Finals and they brought that fight to the final frame. With 7:34 left, Kayla McBride hit a 3-pointer to slice the lead back down to four. Williams had a nice dime to Collier, and suddenly it was a one possession game and the Lynx were eyeing their first lead of the night.

With 3:21 left in the game, the Liberty held on to a two-point lead and Laney-Hamilton hit a clutch 3-pointer to give New York a five-point lead and some breathing room. Leonie Fiebich added another 3-pointer and the Liberty put the Lynx away for good, winning the game by scoring twelve-straight points.

Closing thoughts

Laney-Hamilton was the hero for New York on Sunday. She brought defensive versatility and her clutch outside shooting was too much for Minnesota to handle. The Lynx will have to figure out a way to slow her down because New York will undoubtedly go to her a lot again in Game 3.

With the series even at 1-1, the Lynx have to be happy with their position. If they win their home games, they will be champions. The Liberty might not be thrilled with their current spot, but Game 2 showed that they can overwhelm and control the Lynx when they play their best.

New York never trailed on Sunday and they dominated for most of Game 1 before things went south. All they need to do is win one of these upcoming road games and they’ll regain control of the series. They’ll get their first chance of stealing a road game on Wednesday Oct. 16 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) as Game 3 moves to Minnesota.