Before the Paris Olympics began, Group C in the women’s 5×5 basketball competition didn’t seem very compelling, but that’s why we play the games. We’ve had some surprisingly competitive games, and a few countries have been impressive.

Still, the more things change, the more they remain the same.

Belgium pushed Team USA, staying in the game for most of the contest before the Americans ended things in the fourth and won 87-74. Germany continues outperforming its FIBA ranking, beating Japan 75-64 and remaining undefeated in Paris. Team USA and Germany have now officially clinched spots in the quarterfinals, entering the final games of the group stage.

Team USA, human after all?

Yes, they’ve won 57 games in a row and haven’t lost an Olympic game since 1992. However, two games in, Team USA has looked… human? They are still the favorites to win the gold and still dominant, but they are no longer an infinitely tall mountain no one can climb.

Belgium, which shares a border with France, had what sounded like a home crowd in Paris. The energy was palpable and expanded beyond the stadium to my Southern California home. A crowd can help, but it can only take you so far. You have to play well for the crowd to matter, and Belgium held up their end of the bargain. Emma Meesseman, a former WNBA Finals MVP who fans are well aware of, put on a show, scoring 24 points on 11-for-19 shooting. Midway through the second half, Team USA was leading, but it was still a two-possession game.

While the red, white and blue didn’t look invincible, they were still unbeatable. Breanna Stewart was electric with 26 points, and A’ja Wilson had a double-double with 23 points and 13 rebounds. With Team USA up by double digits in waning seconds, Sabrina Ionescu, reminded by the American sideline of the potential importance of point differential, put an exclamation point on the win by nailing a 3-pointer and literally telling the crowd to be quiet. The moment looked eerily similar to when Kobe Bryant made the same gesture at the 2008 Olympics in London.

Satou Sabally is good at basketball

She has missed the entire WNBA season due to injury, but Satou Sabally is back and playing for Germany at the Olympics. She’s even better than you remember and the Germans are relying on her to take them as far as she can. So far, that’s resulted in two wins and a 33-point performance on Thursday.

Japan had no answer for Sabally, but then again, no one really does. Seeing how far the Germans will go in this tournament will be interesting, as they could upset quite a few teams if Sabally keeps this current form up.

What to watch on Sunday

Germany will face the ultimate test versus Team USA at 11:15 a.m. ET (USA Network) on Sunday. Sabally is very familiar with the Americans, and even though they haven’t looked like juggernauts, they have a roster you don’t want to see fully engaged. It will be interesting to see how competitive a game Germany can make this one.

The two winless teams, Japan and Belgium, are still in contention. However, someone will have to win by a large margin to jump up and land a top-eight spot. I doubt it happens, but if it does, my money is on Belgium being the country that gets it done. Japan and Belgium will play each other at 5 a.m. ET (Peacock) on Sunday.

Game information

Japan vs. Belgium

When: Sunday, August 4 at 5:00 a.m. ET

Where: Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France

How to watch: Peacock

USA vs. Germany

When: Sunday, August 4 at 11:15 a.m. ET

Where: Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France

How to watch: USA Network

When it comes to women’s 5×5 basketball on the international scene, any group with Team USA in it automatically becomes the “Group of Death.” Yet, Group B is making a case for the title. Made up of France, Australia, Nigeria and Canada, this group has been filled with a rollercoaster of results, and the outlook has changed multiple times.

Three of the four teams have WNBA talent, while Nigeria has come up to shock the world with how competitive their team has been. As we await the final day of group play, there is still no way of telling which teams will advance. It will likely come down to point differential in the end, but this group has already been full of surprises.

France has sights on the podium at home Games

After taking home bronze at the Tokyo Olympics, the French National Team has been rising as a heavy hitter on the international scene. While they were predicted to do well in this tournament, they have been absolutely dominating the group.

It makes sense. France not only is a huge hub for women’s basketball in the EuroLeague, but they’ve been pumping out WNBA and NBA talent in recent years. Not sure what’s in the French water to keep producing these giant and skilled players, but it’s working for the French.

You also have the WNBA talent that has been on the French team for a number of years. Gabby Williams, in particular, has been absolutely on fire so far in Paris. Williams, along with fellow French/WNBA standout Marine Johannès, opted not to play in the WNBA to focus on their national team—and it’s paying off. Williams leads the French in points per game (13), efficiency (21.5) and assists per game (7.5), and is second in rebounds per game (4). She looks powerful out there on the court, and the team as a whole just looks a lot more powerful than they did in Tokyo.

They started their group play with a huge win over Canada, 75-54, and then followed that up with another win over Nigeria with the exact same score, 75-54. Two big blowout wins, which not only brings them to 2-0, but does wonders for their point differential. They are the favorite to lead the group when all is said and done, and will close out their group stage against Australia on Sunday.

Canada on the brink of elimination

While France has stormed ahead in Group B, Canada has not been able to get going. After coming into the Olympics with high hopes, this group has just been too powerful for the Canadians, as Canada’s areas of weakness are the other teams’ areas of strength.

They started out with France, when a lack of defensive energy and failure to take care of the basketball resulted in a big loss. They scored just two points in the second quarter—the lowest-scoring quarter in Olympic history—and could not recover. Canada played better against Australia, but lost by five points, 70-65. They racked up turnovers again, could not make free throws and shot 31.1 percent on 2-point shots. The only player who could get going offensively was Bridget Carleton, who scored 19 points on 5-for-7 shooting from distance.

They did play better defense and managed to get Australia in some foul trouble, but could not capitalize. Australia’s dynamic bigs, in combination with their sharp shooting guards, were too much for a Canadian team that lacks power in the backcourt.

Canada now sits on the brink of elimination. After France beat Nigeria, they held off being eliminated, but will now play Nigeria on Sunday. If they lose, they are out. If they win, it will come down to the result of Australia-France, as well as point differential. Unfortunately, due to Canada’s slide against France in their first game, they sit in a rough spot in terms of point differential. Yet, France could have another big performance against Australia, and if Canada can beat Nigeria by a wide enough margin, they may be able to come out of the group.

Australia’s hanging out in the middle

Australia got the better of Canada, bringing them up to 1-1 in the group. Nigeria shocked the world by beating them by a margin of 13 points in their opening game, so the Opals came into their game against Canada in a must-win situation.

They were able to inch out the five-point victory over the Canadians, but their hopes to make the quarterfinals still hang in the balance. They have their toughest match waiting for them on Sunday when they take on the host French. And while a loss would not automatically knock them out, they’d then have to rely on points.

If Nigeria and Australia both win on Sunday, it will come down to the wire on points, as both currently sit at -8 in point differential. Australia may be hoping Canada wins over Nigeria, since they have the point advantage over them as of right now. Still, it’s going to come down to the math on Sunday.

Nigeria stuns Group B

Nigeria was the team in Group B that no one was really paying attention to prior to the games. It seemed like they would fall to three powerful teams in France, Australia and Canada.

Yet, Nigeria shook up the field when they beat Australia by 13 points in their first game. They then went on to give the French a run for their money as well, going into halftime of their second game tied. Of course, the French ended up coming away with the 20-point victory, but Nigeria’s hopes are not extinguished yet.

They still have a chance to proceed in the tournament if they beat Canada on Sunday. They also could advance as a third place team if they end up being one of the better third place teams across all three groups. Regardless, Nigeria will be playing with advancing on the mind on Sunday. Their chances are pretty good as it stands, and they could shock the women’s basketball world by making it through.

Game information

Canada vs. Nigeria

When: Sunday, August 4 at 7:30 a.m. ET

Where: Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France

How to watch: Peacock

Australia vs. France

When: Sunday, August 4 at 3 p.m. ET

Where: Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France

How to watch: Peacock

The penultimate day of women’s 3×3 basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics will tip-off this Saturday, Aug. 3, beginning with the final round of pool play games and culminating with the first two games (or “play-in” games) of the 3×3 tournament.

Since the tournament schedule won’t technically be set until after Saturday’s pool games have been decided, it’s hard to predict what will happen when Olympic medals are on the line. Here are the pool play standings thus far:

1. Germany (5-1)
2. Spain (4-2)
3. Australia (4-2)
4. United States (3-3)
5. Canada (3-3)
6. Azerbaijan (2-4)
7. China (2-4)
8. France (1-5)

The only thing set in stone is that France, with just one win and one game remaining, will not make the tournament and thus be eliminated from the competition. Germany, meanwhile, is in the driver’s seat to advance directly to the semifinals that begin on Monday, Aug. 5, but they’ll still need to finish pool play strong on Saturday to clinch the top-two finish needed for a play-in bye.

The rest of the pool remains completely up in the air. China and Azerbaijan will be in must-win situations, while the United States will also try to sneak into the tournament after beginning pool play at 0-3. With the way the final round of pool games are set up, there’s even a possibility that the United States, Canada, Azerbaijan and China all finish pool play with a 3-4 record, which would create an unenviable four-way tiebreaker scenario in which head-to-head records would decide who moves on and who is eliminated, according to the FIBA 3×3 rulebook.

The United States can’t worry about that now. They’ve dug themselves out of an early hole in pool play, evening their record at 3-3 after a last-second Rhyne Howard basket lifted them over Canada. While the United States hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty expectations it earned with gold medals in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and the 2023 FIBA 3×3 World Cup, they’ve turned what could have been a disaster in Paris into a situation that’s still salvageable. Finishing pool play strong against China would put the United States in the tournament phase, at which point anything could happen—for better or for worse.

Game information

Azerbaijan vs. Canada

When: Saturday, August 3 at 11:30 a.m. ET

Where: Place de la Concorde in Paris, France

How to watch: Peacock

Spain vs. Germany

When: Saturday, August 3 at 12:00 p.m. ET

Where: Place de la Concorde in Paris, France

How to watch: Peacock

France vs. Australia

When: Saturday, August 3 at 12:35 p.m. ET

Where: Place de la Concorde in Paris, France

How to watch: Peacock

China vs. United States

When: Saturday, August 3 at 1:05 p.m. ET

Where: Place de la Concorde in Paris, France

How to watch: CNBC

Play-in game (No. 4 vs. No. 5)

When: Saturday, August 3 at 3:30 p.m. ET

Where: Place de la Concorde in Paris, France

How to watch: Peacock

Play-in game (No. 3 vs. No. 6)

When: Saturday, August 3 at 4:05 p.m. ET

Where: Place de la Concorde in Paris, France

How to watch: USA Network

The Paris Olympics have been as good as advertised in women’s 5×5 basketball. With all teams in Group A having played two games, Serbia and Spain have officially qualified for the quarterfinals.

Spain and Serbia are dominating the group, while Puerto Rico is eighth overall, thanks to a point differential of -4. Unfortunately for China, they’re all but done unless they beat Puerto Rico by 30 points on Saturday.

Serbia sits at the top

One reason Serbia is at the top of Group A is their dominant 81-59 win over China on Wednesday. Serbia controlled the entire game and completed the blowout win in impressive fashion, outscoring China 19-9 in the closing quarter.

Serbia had a balanced attack, with four players scoring in double figures led by Yvonne Anderson’s 15 points. Tina Krajišnik cleaned the glass better than Windex in the win, pulling down 11 boards. Li Yueru put on an incredible performance in China’s loss to Spain, scoring 31 points. However, she wasn’t able to produce anywhere near that level against Serbia, scoring just eight points on 2-for-3 shooting.

Spain survives (again)

Photo by THOMAS COEX/AFP via Getty Images

Spain has had nothing but nail-biting wins during these Olympics. First, they beat China by one point in overtime, and then they mustered another one-point victory, this time against Puerto Rico, 63-62.

There were great performances all around, including Spain’s Megan Gustafson’s double-double. She ended the game with 18 points and 13 rebounds. For Puerto Rico, Arella Guirantes was the biggest contributor, scoring a team-high 15 points. Spain was down by one point with nine seconds left. Leonor Rodriguez took a 3-point shot and missed, but Laura Gil came through in the clutch with an offensive rebound. She was fouled with one second left and ended up converting on both of her free throws.

Puerto Rico still had one last chance to win the game, but Guirantes missed the final 3-point attempt, sealing their fate and allowing Spain to walk away undefeated.

What to watch on Saturday

It’s the battle of the winless when China and Puerto Rico face each other on Saturday at 5:00 a.m. ET (Peacock). Puerto Rico has looked impressive, while China has had one competitive game and one disappointing one. China will need to win big if they want a shot at the quarterfinals; for Puerto Rico, a win would likely be enough to advance to the next stage.

Serbia versus Spain is the polar opposite of the former matchup. Both teams enter the contest undefeated, but after this Saturday showdown at 7:30 a.m. ET (Peacock), only one team will end the group stage having never lost. While both teams have found ways to be victorious, Serbia has been more dominant, so they’ll likely be favored. The key for Serbia will be slowing down Gustafson, who leads Spain in scoring. If the Spaniards win, it’ll likely be because they were able to outrebound Serbia and control the tempo of the game.

Game information

China vs. Puerto Rico

When: Saturday, August 3 at 5:00 a.m. ET

Where: Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France

How to watch: Peacock, nbcolympics.com

Serbia vs. Spain

When: Saturday, August 3 at 7:30 a.m. ET

Where: Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France

How to watch: Peacock, nbcolympics.com